Why the Fall Trekking Period Turned Fatal in the Himalayan Mountains
Bright heavens, gentle breezes and a panoramic view of majestic peaks draped in snow - this describes the autumn setting that hikers on the world's highest peak have come to love.
However this seems to be transforming.
Shifting Weather Patterns
Climate scientists indicate the rainy season now extends into autumn, which is traditionally the high-altitude tourism period.
During this prolonged tail end of monsoon, they have observed at least one instance of extreme precipitation nearly every year for the past decade, with high-altitude weather becoming increasingly dangerous.
Recent Crisis on Everest
Recently, a unexpected snowstorm trapped several hundred of travelers near the east-facing face of Everest for days in bitterly cold temperatures at an elevation of more than 16,000ft.
Nearly 600 trekkers were escorted to safety by the end of Tuesday, according to sources.
One person had died from extreme cold and altitude sickness, but the others were reportedly in stable condition.
Similar Events Across the Region
This was on the Tibetan slope but something similar had unfolded on the Nepal slope, where a Korean climber died on Mera Peak.
The world found out after some delay because communications were disrupted by heavy downpours and significant snow accumulation.
Authorities calculate that landslides and sudden floods in the country have killed around sixty people over the previous seven days.
"It is very atypical for autumn during which we anticipate the skies to stay clear," stated an experienced mountain guide.
Business Consequences
Considering autumn represents the preferred period, frequent extreme weather events like this have "disrupted our mountaineering and mountaineering industry," he continued.
The monsoon season in northern India and Nepal usually continues from June to early autumn, but not anymore.
"Research shows that most of the annual cycles in the previous decade have had monsoons continuing until the middle of autumn, which is definitely a change," said a high-ranking weather expert.
Increasing Weather Extremes
More concerning is the intense precipitation and snow the concluding phase of the period brings, like it did this time on 4 and 5 October.
High in the Himalayas, such severe weather means snowstorms and winter storms, which constitutes a significant risk for trekking, mountaineering and tourism.
Personal Experiences
That's what happened last weekend when the weather changed very suddenly - the winds began howling, mercury readings dropped sharply and visibility decreased drastically.
The trail that had comfortably led the trekkers to what was expected to be a stunning pitstop was now covered in white accumulation and impossible to navigate.
Nevertheless, one hiker, who had climbed these mountains more than a dozen times, said he had "never encountered conditions like this" before.
Expert Analysis
One major driver is the higher quantity of moisture in the atmosphere because of how the planet has been warming, researchers say.
This has contributed to heavy precipitation over a short span of duration, often after a extended period without rain – in contrast to in the past when seasonal rains were distributed uniformly over four months.
A Intensified Monsoon
Climate specialists report the rainy seasons in the region at occasions appear to have become stronger because they are more frequently interacting with an additional atmospheric phenomenon, the western weather pattern.
This is a low pressure system that forms in the Mediterranean area and travels eastward - it transports cold air that brings rains and sometimes snow to the subcontinent, Pakistan and Nepal.
Climate Change Effects
Scientists have also discovered that in a heating world, the growing relationship between western weather systems and monsoons is producing an additional unusual outcome.
The hotter air is forcing the clouds higher, which means these atmospheric conditions are now able to pass over the mountain barrier and reach Tibet and additional areas that previously experienced less so much rain before.
"What's changed is the predictability of patterns; we can't assume that conditions will behave the identical from year to year," commented an experienced mountain guide.
"This implies adaptable planning, immediate decision-making, and knowledgeable guidance [in the Himalayas] have become even more important."