Netherlands Elections: Key Players and Central Topics in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are preparing to potentially replace the most rightwing government in modern history with a more moderate and commonsense alliance during snap parliamentary elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Its Significance
Early legislative elections were called after the breakdown of the outgoing government in June, when rightwing figure the Freedom party leader pulled his PVV from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations formed a unstable multi-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, NSC party and center-right VVD.
However, Wilders' government allies considered him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an anti-immigration polemicist who has lived under police protection for two decades, began sniping from outside government.
He ultimately triggered the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to implement a radical comprehensive anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to guard frontiers, rejecting all asylum seekers, shutting down asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although support for the PVV has decreased, surveys suggest the far-right, Islam-critical party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than sixteen political groups are predicted to enter parliament, but none is expected to win more than approximately 20% of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an significant force on the EU and world stage, will be formed following coalition negotiations that could take several months.
How the System Works and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 MPs in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a administration requires 76 seats to form a majority. No individual group ever manages this, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions for more than a century.
Parliament is elected every four years – earlier if administrations fail – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of contenders in a country-wide district: any political group that wins less than 1% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in many European nations, Netherlands political life have been characterized in recent decades by a significant drop in support for the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose share of the vote has decreased from more than 80% in the eighties to barely two-fifths now.
Domestically, this trend has been accompanied by a remarkable multiplication of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Main Issues
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, male Ukrainian refugees to be sent home, the military to combat "urban violence", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are neck-and-neck behind the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Dutch politics from the end of the seventies to the early 90s, and once more in the early 2000s, but slumped to only five mandates in the previous poll.
Nevertheless, under its young leader, its youthful rising star, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has bounced back with a campaign highlighting the severe Netherlands housing shortage and a commitment of "reasonable, respectful governance". It is projected for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is expected to become a full-blown merger, is on track to win a similar number, according to polling averages.
Headed by the experienced former European commissioner its leader, it has made constructing additional housing its biggest priority, and has controversially included a immigration limit of between 40,000 and 60,000 people a year in its platform.
Three other parties look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The center-left D66 is on course to increase representation – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its direct-speaking young leader, with a platform focused on residential construction (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for recipients.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now NATO leader), is predicted to slump to no more than sixteen mandates from its current 24, with its head, accused of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decrease. It is promising business tax cuts and less welfare.
The populist, hardline conservative JA21 is a spin-off from a different rightwing formation – the once popular, now controversy-plagued FvD – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could secure fourteen mandates.
In addition to the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to decline, with the NSC not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns so far have been immigration, with several – sometimes violent – protests against planned emergency reception centres for asylum seekers, the living expenses, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the nation is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Given the highly fragmented state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is just as important as who wins the election (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will partner with Wilders, who insists he wants to lead a minority government).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who explores potential partnerships. Once a workable alliance has been identified, a formateur, usually the head of the biggest prospective member, begins negotiating the government program. This often requires months.
Various combinations look possible, typically including a mix of parties from centre left and center right. The most likely, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus D66 and several smaller parties potentially including JA21.
