🔗 Share this article

The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, Scottish fans would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.